Thoughts and Musings
Sometimes informed, sometimes delusional, thoughts on the serious to the absurd
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Our Race
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Why the GOP field should stay the course -- and why their leadership should encourage them
With former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney having won the Iowa caucuses by a historically close margin and holding a seemingly insurmountable lead in the upcoming New Hampshire primary, he’d like you and his competitors to believe he’s sitting pretty as the inevitable nominee. Conventional wisdom says the longer the rest of the GOP field continues to challenge Romney, the more damage it will do to the eventual nominee, right? Not so fast. The reality is quite the contrary.
We’ve seen the inevitability message hammered home before. In 1972, Ed Musky was as inevitable as –candidates come only to be defeated by a ruthless Nixon political machine and an energized George McGovern. In 2008, I had the pleasure of working on the delegate selection team for that cycle’s inevitable nominee. Then-Senator Hillary Clinton’s inevitability was unquestionable in the summer of 2007 and wasn’t shaken until her campaign was confronted by a harsh reality: the rules of the game.
In 2012, the rules are more important for the GOP nomination than ever before. In August, 2010, recognizing the value of a longer, more competitive nominating season, the Republican National Committee changed the rules that govern its state nominating contests to require any state that holds a nominating contest before April 1 to allocate its delegates on a proportional basis.
Say what you want about the GOP, but don’t doubt its electoral savvy. The GOP was smart to change its rules. In 2008, the Clinton and Obama campaigns competed in state after state with the conventional wisdom being that such infighting would hurt our eventual nominee’s chances of a November victory. This conventional wisdom could not have been farther from the truth. In state after state the campaigns built daunting field operations and flooded the airwaves with democratic messaging to the extent that in a number of key swing states, the McCain campaign was never able to viably compete. To its credit, the Republican leadership recognized the advantage of the protracted Democratic nominating process and the value in allowing a broader, more heterogeneous portion of the American electorate to participate in choosing the party’s nominee. There’s little doubt that GOP leadership is privately encouraging candidates to see the race out (look no further than the flip-flop from Texas Governor Rick Perry).
To the GOP establishment, this framework provides for the best of both worlds: the contest could remain reasonably competitive up until April 1, but if their candidates were still contesting contests at that point, the winner-take-all nature of the remaining contests would enable GOP leadership to exert enough influence to bring the contest to a quick conclusion.
In considering their current political standing, the GOP field should remember the importance of the rules of the game and the historic failure of the inevitability message, and stay the course. The RNC changed its delegate selection rules to draw the primary campaign out longer, not to shorten it. Abandoning the winner-take-all unit rule in favor of proportionally distributing delegates makes wins less important, the actual percentages the candidates garner more important, and the delegate count inevitably closer. The GOP field would be well served to recognize that at this stage of the game it’s still anybody’s race. Whereas before a few close wins could quickly propel a Republican candidate to a large delegate lead, now the magnitude of such wins is extremely important.
The only thing inevitable about Mitt Romney at this stage is his front-runner status. The clear expectation is that Governor Romney will win New Hampshire, but what about the contests just beyond New Hampshire? Polling in South Carolina and Florida has shown no consistency and if Romney falters in one of these contests it will almost ensure he won’t be the only Republican standing on March 6, Super Tuesday, when ten states will hold nominating contests.
Anybody but Mitt?
In addition, GOP voters seem eager to nominate anybody but Mitt, and the smart candidates (hold the laughter) recognize that the longer they maintain their viability, the more likely they are to garner the votes of those candidates who do decide to drop out (congratulations, Senator Santorum!). Romney’s support has been largely static throughout the campaign thus far and there are few indicators that suggest it will increase while alternative candidates remain in the race. The polling from both South Carolina and Florida is sporadic at best and indicates that the contests in those states are wide open. Perhaps that’s why the only real path to a Romney nomination is one where he tries to divide and conquer the field.
Considering all these factors, the last thing Romney’s competitors should do is drop out early. While conventional wisdom (and hard numbers, admittedly) says that Romney has the financial wherewithal to outlast his opponents, these competitors would be well served to test that wisdom against the apparent hesitance Republican voters have with their presumptive nominee. With new rules that will keep the delegate race close, voter apathy with the presumptive nominee, and seemingly wide open races in major early states such as South Carolina and Florida, the GOP field shouldn’t flee to the exits prematurely. Not only could their resolve reasonably lead to an alternative to Romney emerging as the front runner, but it’s also exactly what their party wanted them to do when it decided to change the rules of the game.